The global online learning market

The current analysis of the international online education market includes aggregated data from a variety of sources. Despite the fact that the conclusions of any analytical study are somewhat subjective, you can benefit from any information, which is what I wish you.

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Education is one of the largest industries in the world, accounting for over 6% of global GDP. The volume of the global education market in 2021, according to data from open sources, reached 6.5 trillion US dollars, and the market size of the EdTech industry is 270 billion US dollars, which, according to maximum expert estimates, is only a little more than 4% of the total volume of the education market, according to the results of 2020, was about 3.6%. Even taking into account the maximum expected 12% growth in the global EdTech market to $300 billion in 2022, the online education market share by the end of 2022 is likely to not exceed 5.5% of the total market, but continues to steadily grow.

According to the Wittgenstein Center for Demography and Global Human Capital (IIASA, VID/ÖAW, WU), there will be 2 billion more graduates of schools, colleges, universities and alternative higher education institutions in the world by 2050 than in 2020.

The main reason for the increase in the number of students will be the general increase in the population of the earth, including due to an increase in the average life expectancy. The increase in the number of able-bodied population and the global trend towards continuous education throughout the life cycle will greatly increase the influence of demographic factors on the existing and potential demand for educational services and the workload of the education system. The share of the online learning segment, in the current situation, will naturally increase.

Despite the fact that the volume of venture investments in the EdTech market is still relatively small, it has almost tripled from $8.2 billion in 2018 to $16.1 billion in 2020, according to the results of 2021 year, exceeding the mark of 20 billion US dollars.

More than 60% of all global education venture capital funding in 2020, according to HolonIQ, came from the Chinese market, 15% from the US market, 5% from European markets and 14% from the Indian market (4x increase from 2018 to 2020). year).

Unlike 2020, when the Chinese market was the leader in the growth of venture investments in EdTech, the main influx of investments in 2021 came, according to HolonIQ, to the markets of the USA, India and Europe, demonstrating a rapid increase in interest in online education and a redistribution of investment flows due to a decrease in investor interest in the Chinese market. Leadership has passed from China to the United States. The second place was naturally taken by the intensively developing market of India.

India, with 30% of the population under the age of 14, is one of the largest, most dynamic and fastest growing education markets in the world, with over 260 million students in 1.5 million schools, 50,000 higher education institutions and 13,000 industrial institutions (ITI ), which, according to market experts, in the period up to 2030 should provide this country with a leading position in the international education market.

According to HolonIQ, in the twenty-one years since February 2000, the number of public educational companies from 33 countries has increased from 41 in 2000 to 224 in February 2020, to 268 in 2020. year and up to 307 by the end of 2021. At the end of 2019 alone, this amounted to more than $220 billion in market capitalization, $85 billion in revenue, and more than half a million specialists and teachers involved in their activities. HolonIQ predicts that more than 100 public education companies will reach a capitalization of over $1 billion by 2025.

Most of the public educational companies in 2000 were concentrated in the “Higher Education” sector, by 2010 there were shares of 6 companies from the “Secondary School Education” sector and 8 companies in the “Corporate Training” and ” Career”, and by 2020 more than 50% (117) of public education companies represented: school education (74), corporate training and career (31), and preschool education (12).

In February 2020, more than 60% (142) of the total number of public education companies were registered in China (96) and the USA (46), 13% (29) of companies were registered in the UK. At the same time, in 2019, 30% of students in the world were from China and India, and the most actively growing markets of these countries attracted more than 70% of the global venture capital of the EdTech industry.

An increase in investment naturally leads to an increase in the number of IPOs in the future, and to the formation of Unicorn companies (market capitalization of more than $ 1 billion), the number of which in the international education market, according to HolonIQ, has grown from 10 to 2015, up to 30 in 2018, 40 in 2020 and 47 in 2021. Of the 47 educational unicorns, 38 companies represented the EdTech industry in 2021.

Today, according to the author of this article, the potential of the existing global EdTech unicorns (not to be confused with the general global market of EdTech startups) is overestimated, and the education market and the EdTech segment are underestimated in general.

The interest of consumers and private investment capital in the education market and online education in particular is speculative, chaotic and unstable, as evidenced by the high volatility of the EdTech stock market. The market capitalization of 307 public educational companies, according to HolonIQ, decreased by $120 billion in 2021, but primarily due to a decrease in the capitalization of Chinese companies as a result of tightening state control over the Chinese education market.

Of the 33 “EdTech Unicorns” of the global online education market in 2022 from the “HolonIQ” list, 15 companies from the USA (45%), 8 companies from China (24%) and 6 companies from India (18%), the remaining four companies represent Austria, Canada, Australia and Israel. Six companies from the list operate in the sector “Tutoring” (18%), six in the sectors “Higher Education” and “Additional professional education” (18%), including lifelong learning, including micro-learning in certain skills, five companies operate in the sector ” Corporate Training (15%), four in the General and Additional School Education sector (12%), three in the Foreign Languages ​​sector (9%), two in the Career and Recruiting sector (6%), ranging from choosing a future higher education institution or a separate course of vocational education and planning a career development trajectory, and ending with positioning yourself as a professional, interacting with a potential employer and finding employment.

Summarized, the TOP-33 global EdTech Unicorns in 2022 can be divided into three main segments by area of ​​activity: general and additional school education (36%), higher education (24%) and additional vocational education (27%), directed for further career development (to a greater extent) or a change in professional activity (mainly towards the development of various digital competencies).

According to HolonIQ, until 2025, the School Education and Higher Education segments will retain the leading positions in the global education market, while the greatest growth dynamics will be demonstrated, in addition to the segment of general and additional school education (+4.2%), the segment additional professional education and employment (+3.9%).